Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal Reserve. Show all posts

"Modest to Moderate" Growth Not Good Enough

After four-plus years of a deep recession and poor recovery, some can get excited when the economy merely muddles along at a below-average rate of growth.

That seems to be the case with some in their reaction to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on April 11. The information gathered from the Fed’s 12 regional banks pointed to the economy from mid-February through late March continuing to grow “at a modest to moderate pace.”

During periods of recovery, real GDP growth should be expanding robustly. Based on post-World War II history, real GDP should be growing in the 4.5% range. Overall, including recessions, the economy should be growing at better than 3%. Unfortunately, since the recovery began in mid-2009, real GDP growth has averaged a mere 2.5%.

From 2008 to 2011, real annual GDP grew by only 1.2%.

The same pretty much goes for job creation. It was reported in the Fed Beige Book: “Hiring was steady or showed a modest increase across many Districts.”

Again, the job creation numbers have been inconsistent and underwhelming during this recovery. As of March, according to the household survey, employment was still 4.6 million below its peak in November 2007. That just over four years and four months!

The problem with our economy has been and continues to be policy.

On the fiscal side, it’s about federal spending careening out of control, and tax increases, scheduled tax increases and the threat of even more taxes. It’s about hyper-regulation, including on the finance, health care and energy fronts.

But it does not stop there. It’s also about misguided monetary policy in place since the late summer 2008. The Fed has been focused on trying to use monetary policy to gin up the economy, which never works. Instead, it creates uncertainty and concerns over higher inflation. The value of the dollar suffers accordingly, and energy prices, particularly the price of oil and therefore gasoline costs, rise as well.

For good measure, with interest rates purposefully pushed so low by the Fed, banks actually have real concerns about lending money since rates inevitably are going to rise, especially when inflation accelerates. Banks would then be in the position of having long term loans at extremely low rates, and having to pay higher interest rates to pull in capital. That doesn’t work.

Modest to moderate economic growth simply does not cut it. The American people need far better. Indeed, they cannot afford to settle for less than what we should be experiencing, that is, robust growth with solid job creation. But that will require a shift in policy to lower taxes, smaller government, deregulation, and monetary policy exclusively focused on price stability. Indeed, if we do not get a dramatic policy change, it’s doubtful that “modest to moderate” will even be sustained.

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Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His new book is “Chuck” vs. the Business World: Business Tips on TV.

SBE Council Economist on Latest Inflation Numbers

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), offered the following statement in reaction to the CPI inflation numbers released this morning by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"Inflation heated up again over the past three months. No one should be surprised.

"CPI increased at 0.2% in January, 0.4% in February, and 0.3% in March. At an annualized rate then, inflation over the past three months registered 3.6%. Keep in mind that, but for a three-month break, CPI inflation has been running hot since December 2010.

"That's not surprising because the Federal Reserve opened the monetary floodgates in late summer 2008, only taking very minor breathers along the way, and in the end, inflation always is a monetary phenomenon.

"Looking ahead, any further improvement in the economy could work to further unleash the inflation rooted in looseFed policy. None of this, though, is necessary. Instead, it's merely bad policymaking. If the Federal Reserve would simply get refocused on price stability, then we would experience benefits in terms of certainty, growth and inflation."

The Mystery of Regulation Via the Federal Reserve

Call it another case of "regulation without representation." Well, it might not be just another case; instead, it could rank as one of the most blatant cases of "regulation without representation" in recent history.

Our elected officials in the nation's capital are notorious for writing legislation that regulates all kinds of activities, and then leaving the actual details of regulating to the bureaucrats. For good measure, there is no follow up, such as requiring that Congress actually vote for or against these rules and mandates. The federal regulatory process, quite simply, is a glaring abdication of lawmakers' responsibilities.

The Dodd-Frank financial regulation law stands out as a glaring example of nonsensical law, which puts enormous power in the hands of government bureaucrats and hurts the economy.

When President Obama signed the measure into law in July 2010, a New York Times report noted, "A number of the details have been left for regulators to work out, inevitably setting off complicated tangles down the road that could last for years." That was the epitome of understatements. As for the epitome of overstatements, the Times piece went on: "But ‘because of this law, the American people will never again be asked to foot the bill for Wall Street's mistakes,' Mr. Obama said before signing the legislation. ‘There will be no more taxpayer-funded bailouts. Period.'"

In reality, Dodd-Frank in no way bars taxpayer-funded bailouts. Indeed, there are only two broad things that we know for sure about Dodd-Frank.

First, we know that it did nothing to redress the problems that generated the housing/credit mess, unprecedented taxpayer bailouts, and one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression. The causes of this historical meltdown were loose monetary policy, and an assortment of federal laws, entities, subsidies, incentives, rules and regulations that detached home ownership from sound economics. In turn, the private sector acted in accordance with the incentives set up by government, which amplified some of the worst impulses among many borrowers and some lenders. So, all of the key mistakes made by government remain in place. Loose money, imposed in the hopes of ginning up the housing market, is running full throttle; the role of federal entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, after receiving enormous taxpayers bailouts, actually has been expanded; and nothing has been done to fix assorted laws and regulations that push non-economic mortgages.

Second, given this reality, we know that the massive Dodd-Frank regulatory endeavor will generate enormous costs that will further distort markets; create a false sense of security among the electorate; and further empower unelected government bureaucrats.

Consider Dodd-Frank's much-vaunted Volker Rule, named for former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker, which prohibits banks from undertaking proprietary trading. The rule maker is the Federal Reserve. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress in late February that the Volker Rule would not be ready by its July 2012 deadline, and he was not sure when the rule would be ready. The problem? The Fed is having trouble figuring out what kind of trading by banks would and would not be allowed. That's not surprising. After all, what kind of trading is done on behalf of customers and what is done on behalf of shareholders? For good measure, if one understands markets and the reality that shareholders only benefit in the end when the firm serves consumers well, how can various types of trading really be disentangled?

So, the Volker Rule was silly from the start. It does nothing to redress the actual causes of the 2008 credit/economic mess, and only limits banks abilities to enhance value for both bank shareholders and customers.

As for the enhanced power of bureaucrats via regulation, on February 21, The Wall Street Journal published a powerful front-page story on how the Dodd-Frank regulatory undertakings by the Federal Reserve are going on behind closed doors. While the Fed has emphasized greater transparency in its monetary policy decision-making process, it's rule-making process ranks as the most secretive in the federal government, according to this report.

Consider the following from the story:

"While many Americans may not realize it, the Fed has taken on a much larger regulatory role than at any time in history. Since the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul became law in July 2010, the Fed has held 47 separate votes on financial regulations, and scores more are coming. In the process it is reshaping the U.S. financial industry by directing banks on how much capital they must hold, what kind of trading they can engage in and what kind of fees they can charge retailers on debit-card transactions. The Fed is making these sweeping changes-the most dramatic since the Great Depression-almost completely without public meetings. Rather than discussing rules and voting in public, as is done at other agencies with which the Fed often collaborates, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed's four other governors have held just two public meetings since July 2010. On 45 of 47 of the draft or final regulatory measures during that period, they have emailed their votes to the central bank's secretary."


That's not just troubling. It's scary.

Obviously, the Fed carries heavy responsibility for its own actions, as it is breaking with tradition and with what goes on at other federal regulatory entities. At the same time, though, as the Journal noted, the Fed is not breaking any laws. Congress must take responsibility for not specifically dictating that the Fed needs to hold an open process.

Of course, perhaps those in Congress who passed Dodd-Frank are not too keen on having an open process. After all, an open process just might reveal how clueless and misleading lawmakers were when they passed the law, and how bankrupt and costly the law will turn out to be.

All of this matters to the entrepreneurial sector of our economy, as increased costs, limited returns, and government dictates regarding risk for banks inevitably translate into restraints on the availability of credit and ability to grow.

A February 23 Wall Street Journal story further drives home this disturbing reality. Since stepped up regulations occur when regional banks top $10 billion in assets, the incentives to restrain growth are substantial. The Journal noted, "The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau oversees the banks above $10 billion in assets, and bank regulators require them to strengthen risk-management measures. Under a Federal Reserve proposal, they also would have to undergo an annual stress test to prove they can withstand economic hardship."

What's the reaction? As reported, "As such, some banks have made the unusual decision of growing more slowly and even turning away money to stay under the regulatory benchmark. Some banks have lowered the interest rates they pay for customer deposits in an effort to attract less cash. And the timing of growth initiatives also is now a factor, as some banks think it makes little sense to trip the $10 billion trigger unless they are to grow much bigger."

The astoundingly misguided Dodd-Frank then has incentivized an entire portion of the banking industry to avoid growing, unless that growth is large and quick enough so as to more easily absorb the added regulatory costs. That's a recipe for reduced savings, restricted credit, less business growth, and therefore, reduced economic and employment growth.

Politicians excel at blaming the private sector for the problems they usually cause, and then causing more problems with additional misguided actions. This most often is the case with regulation, as elected officials make grandiose claims, pass legislation, and leave bureaucrats to sort out the details and private sector businesses and consumers to absorb the costs. Dodd-Frank is a glaring, costly example. What the economy needs is to repeal this grossly misguided law, and instead, implement reforms that actually address the problems underlying the 2008 mess.

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Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His new book is "Chuck" vs. the Business World: Business Tips on TV.

FOMC's Economic Outlook: Far From Robust

In its statement released on January 25, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change its position on monetary policy.

Basically, the Fed's assessment is that the economy is growing moderately, with household spending up but business fixed investment slowing and housing still depressed. As for inflation, the Fed remains unconcerned. Looking ahead a bit on jobs, the Fed is looking for the unemployment rate to decline slowly.

But what was notable is the Fed's apparent expectation that a slow recovery will continue for the coming three years. Yes, that's three years.

Specifically, the FOMC statement declared: "[T]he Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."

In Fed-speak, "accommodative" means the Fed is unconcerned about inflation, but worried that economic and employment growth will be lacking.

Looking at the new accompanying economic projections by FOMC members, the central tendency points to a range of real GDP growth for 2012 at 2.2%-2.7%, for 2013 at 2.8%-3.2%, for 2014 at 3.3%-4.0%, and the long range is put at 2.3%-2.6%.

Given that real annual growth since 1950 has averaged about 4.5 percent during recovery/expansion years, the Fed is working under the assumption that an under-performing economic recovery is going to persist for at least three more years. Indeed, real GDP growth, according to Fed expectations, is expected to run lower than the average 3.4 percent rate over the past six-plus decades including recession quarters.

Of course, monetary policy ultimately should be about price stability, and FOMC members naturally are projecting tame inflation. Why would we expect otherwise?

In the end, growth is about private sector investment, innovation, entrepreneurship and productivity. These certainly are affected by monetary policy and inflation - for example, in terms of interest rates, the value of the dollar and the ability to plan - but federal tax and regulatory policies are the measures that have significant and direct impact on incentives and therefore the economy. That's the job of the President and Congress, and according to Fed estimates, we need a dramatic shift in a pro-growth direction on taxes and regulations.

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Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council. His new book is "Chuck" vs. the Business World: Business Tips on TV.